Conform Or..

In the initial stages of our lives all we want to do is fit in. As we grow older all we want to do is be different. It’s a strange dichotomy for the same lifetime. That’s allowed of course, you can change your perspective towards life.  The reason behind the transition is what fascinates me. 

Let’s journey back to school. A bespectacled lady in the classroom tells you what good behavior is and that you are constantly being watched. The same saga is repeated during the impressionable years. Now different people react to this discourse in a number of ways. Some follow the path, some do the exact opposite, some differ but stay aligned when being watched and some accidentally disobey. This phase has a telling impact on the personality, sometimes lifelong. Toe the line or face the back of the hand. Now that’s hardly a fair choice.

Cut to the next phase, college. Ah the smell of freedom coupled with the rashness of youth. Brilliant!! A potent recipe for disaster or and a big or at that, foundations of a grand success. So which way does one go? Follow the path of conformity or break free. To be honest that’s not a real dilemma; in a country of over a billion even the rebels are fairly mainstream purely on the basis of absolute numbers. 

Statistics apart, as you grow up, there is a compelling need to distinguish yourself from others. This is sometimes driven by questions like, ‘what sets you apart from others?’, or ‘how are you different from the next guy?’, or ‘what difference will you make?’ Standard questions asked in various settings and perfectly relevant too. 

Now this gets me wondering, apart from the true rebels (don’t ask me to define a true rebel), are the others who are ‘being different’ actually different. They are in a sense conforming to the need to be different as expected due to external forces. So the next time you are asked to display you difference, you may want to ponder on what you as an individual really want.

New Age Stories

I truly enjoy good stories, both to narrate and read. Something to stimulate the gray cells is always welcome.

But these days the word ‘story’ is being used rather loosely. Every advertising hoarding, news paper article etc has the word story mentioned. We have the ‘India growth story’, ‘Infrastructure Story’, ‘Power story’. I can go on and list many more.

It makes me wonder if these are stories at all. Writing something which follows the straight line of rationality is not what I would term as a ‘story’. In the new age we are sold these stories. Rationality simplified, created on a spreadsheet and sold over the counter, bit cold too.

A story (fiction or real) must have some elements of irrationality, some unexpected elements. It must bring some zing into the reader's mind. It would be great if the words can create a strong visual appeal.

I think 'story' would be India's word of the year 2010, but I hope its not in 2011.

'Common' 'wealth' "Games"

Really...
Angry, hurt, disappointed...

Nothing more to say..

Premier League Preview

The start of another season of the BPL beckons. After the excitement of the World Cup, it will be fun to get back to the bustle of club football. It harder to pick a winner this season as the gap between the top teams seems to be closing. Especially when clubs spend $100m in the transfer market.

Liverpool under new manager Roy Hodgson will be a far more stable now. Having managed to keep Gerrard and Torres is a big boost to their chances.

Tottenham Hotspurs will look to build on their last seasons performance. I think how far they progress in the Champions League will be inversely proportional to how well they do in the Premier League.

Manchester City have almost purchased a new team. Significant additions include David Silva, Yaya Toure, Mario Balotelli, Jerome Boateng and rumuors of more on the way. They seem to be a team with a mission and I reckon they have a great chance of finishing in the top four.

Arsenal have under achieved for a long time now. Five years without a trophy is unacceptable for a team of this repute. In my view they may slide further this season, and a finish in the top four looks challenging.

Chelsea and Manchester United, the perennial toppers are my favourites this time too. Chelsea have not made any significant addition to their squads but look formidable. Manchester United have added a couple of young strikers to their team, adding some solidity to the attack.

I am going to go with Manchester United winning this season.

An ode to EBITDA

Life was beautiful, naïve and innocent.

Profit simply meant Sales less cost,

So simple, so elegant, uncomplicated;

Then along the way came EBITDA,

Life suddenly changed, 

Light shone on the ignorant mind,

Then the winds of realization rocked my world,

Life would no longer remain the same.

Profit was no longer a simple concept,

Real value began to emerge, and

With it came WACC, ROCE and ROE.

Thus illuminating the darkness permanently.

Stock Market - Respect

A lot has been said and written about the anomalies of the stock market, its irrational exuberance driven by sentiment and liquidity. The inefficiencies are always highlighted and talked and written about, especially during a bear market when things are collapsing. The fact remains, that a market consists of various participants. While the speculators do create noise, the sane minds respect earnings.

Last week, the Supreme court declared its verdict on the Reliance gas controversy. It ruled in favour of Reliance Industry being able to sell the gas at government prescribed rate. 
The stock market reacted in an expected manner. Reliance Industry soared, RNRL and Reliance Power tanked. What is amazing is that the market capitalization lost and gained was almost equal.

This is the beauty of the stock market. It computed the value derived by one company and value lost to the other set of companies in a matter of hours. This is no coincidence, its the sheer power of rationality of the markets.
Its instances like these which makes you say, Respect...

Kasab Verdict

It took over 17 months for the trial to conclude. The decision seemed inevitable right at the outset, but the judge deliberated and heard arguments from both parties before passing his judgment.
"To be hanged till death"

Its a landmark judgment, not because of the complexity involved but the impact it has on the common man. For the unfortunate victims relatives, it is a step forward towards closure. It alleviates the grief of these folks and God alone knows that they deserve better.

The judgment also sends a message to terrorists; there is no honour in what they are doing and what they are trying to achieve. The end result, as it rightfully should be, is death without any dignity.

It also makes me feel proud to be an Indian. Nobody would have grudged us if we had shot Kasab on the fateful night or immediately thereafter. We were mature enough to allow are judicial system to play its part and reach a legal conclusion.

My prayers are with all those that suffered.

How sport helps an Economy

Sport is viewed in many dimensions across the world. It provides great entertainment to the public, career opportunities to the players, coaches and others associated (broadcasters, journalists etc). But we seldom look at it from an economy perspective. I believe that a huge sporting extravaganza is an economic kicker. You suddenly have an event which creates new avenue of enterprise at various levels.

Lets try and break it down, using the IPL as an example.

Direct Impact

1. Players - Earning significant salaries, which will eventually trickle into the economy
2. Broadcasters - Huge advertising revenue due to popularity of sport
3. Team Owners - Revenue generation through broadcasting rights, gate receipts and merchandise
4. Stadium / Venues - Match hosting fee
5. Government - Through tax receipts (In the context of IPL, this may not be entirely accurate

These stakeholders are direct beneficiaries of hosting a huge sporting event. Obviously the trickle down effect from each of these parties is significant. At an individual level, there wont be a significant impact to the above mentioned stakeholder (except for maybe the players) as most of them are fairly well off in their current life scenario.
The life altering impact is on a different set of people, mentioned below.

Associated Impact

1. Food Vendors - In and around the stadium there are large number of food / refreshment vendors who suddenly have an additional target audience ready to consume.
2. Merchandiser - The small guys manufacturing and selling jerseys, banners , placards, whistles, hats, accessories etc..
3. Event Management Firms - Organizing and managing such events is a professionals job
4. Tourism - Loyal fans travel along with teams they support

I may have missed out a few, but the point I am trying to make must be clear by now. It provides opportunity to a bunch of small guys to grow their business, expand their horizons and strive for more. These events also facilitate fans to consume more than they otherwise would have.
When the IPL shifted to South Africa last year, it generated over 1billion rand for the economy. That is the kind of impact sport makes.

Sport : Life

Year 1999:
Bayern Munich     - 1
Machester United - 2
(Manchester United score in the last few seconds of the game; Bayern Munich lead for most of the game)

Year 2010:
Bayern Munich     - 2

Machester United - 1
(Bayern Munich score in the last few seconds of the game; Manchester United lead for most of the game)


Sport is such a great leveler....... Don't get me started on life now....

Economy Overview

World Economy

The world is recovering from the shocks of the most severe recession in recent history. It was the first time since world war two that the global economy has substantially contracted when compared to previous years. The acute phase of the financial crisis has passed and a global economic recovery is underway. However, the recovery remains fragile and is expected to slow in the second half of 2010 as the growth impact of fiscal and monetary measures wane and the current inventory cycle runs its course. Economists believe that the baseline scenario for global growth would be 2.7 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2011. The world can be classified into slow growth economies like U.S.A, U.K and the rest of Europe who are grappling with huge fiscal deficits and significant debt, and faster growing Asian countries which have remained well insulated from the turmoil.

The world economy is trudging towards recovery but faces significant risks which can hamper growth. The reduced impact of the fiscal stimulus, sovereign defaults or banking failures could plunge the world economy back into recession.

Indian Economy

The Indian economy witnessed an average GDP growth of over 9% from 2005-08. The global financial crisis contributed to the deceleration in annual GDP growth to 6.1% in 2009. India escaped the brunt of the global financial crisis because of cautious banking policies and a relatively low dependence on exports for growth. Domestic demand driven by purchases of consumer durables and automobiles has emerged as a key driver of the economy. During the slowdown imports and exports were severely impacted. The economy is back on track, with industrial output improving every month. The government expects GDP growth to be over 8% in 2010 and above 9% from 2011 onwards.

The risks that India faces are more external in nature. The risk of the global economy experiencing a downturn, sovereign default or failure of banks threaten India’s impressive growth rate. The fiscal deficit for 2009 was at 6.9% of GDP is a cause of concern for the economy. The Finance Minister has pledged to bring the deficit down to 5.5% of GDP in 2010 and further to 4.8% in 2011. Improvement in this situation will allow better credit access to corporate as government borrowing will reduce. 
The situation remains linked to how the world progresses but the clouds are less dark now.

Theme 2010 - Consolidate

The ship has just made it out of a dangerous storm. The port is visible but yet at a distance. The key question is should we make a dash for the port or spend some time and repair the holes in the ship before proceeding.

This past year has helped separate the truly resilient individuals, businesses and countries. Some of it is fortuitous and some of it is due to foresight. The point is, we stand at the threshold of a new world order being created. It needs to be built with careful preparation. Adequate time needs to be spent in the repairing and then moving towards growing.

My theme of the year is careful rebuilding.