Theme 2012 – Carefully rebuild; Hopefully Not the End of time

The Mayan’s predicted the end of the world in 2012. Assuming they are wrong, I chose to have a theme for this year. Here is, hoping that they aren't correct.

To begin, lets be honest. We ain't out of trouble on the economic front. Countries on the verge collapsing across Europe, sweeping revolutions in the Middle East, slowing growth in Asia and sweet corruption in India. Not trying to sound gloomy, but yes, these are largely the facts.

It is very easy to get stuck in a downward spiral. Negativity breeds inaction and results in poor performance and complacency. Might be a great idea to look afresh, breathe optimistically and work harder towards new goals. Positivity is like the proverbial lotus. Lets put the past few years behind, and look at this year with renewed vigour. Various catastrophic events, both, man made and nature’s fury, have pegged us back. It’s time to shake it off and resume careful rebuilding.

Why do I sound optimistic?

It is God’s greatest blessing that he made human beings resilient. Unbounded optimism maybe foolish, overly pessimistic can be catastrophic, but to be cautiously optimistic makes infinite sense. A large portion of humans fall in this category. Some aware but most largely unaware of this state of being. I do not wish to debate the benefits of each mental state, but if I were to simply add the sum of all of mankind’s mental state. It would probably lean towards the optimistic side. Having this faith, and given last year’s over pessimism there is a need for restoring the balance.

Let’s take those steps towards being positive in rebuilding what was lost in the last few years.

The I Revolution

If you were born before 1970 then this write up might seem blasphemous to you, but read on anyway. I say 1970, but I might be off by a few years. But the general idea of thinking about yourself before others not being considered selfish emerged only in the early 90’s. No, this is not one of those essays which will ‘intellectually’ conclude that this is the result of ‘imported western culture’ due to the opening of our economy.

In the Indian context, the identity of an individual is an emerging concept. Identity has always been based on a collective concept under religion, caste, creed and family name.  The protective umbrella provided comfort and respect which quelled the need to express individuality. As families disintegrated due to space constraints in our cities, the protective umbrella cover has withdrawn. To a large extent, it forced people to discover their individuality. As a result, this has opened a whole new emphasis on focusing on yourself.  The collective needs of a group are no longer unequivocally greater than an individual.

It has been a gradual shift, but it is systemic and real. In India it is developing into a revolution which will eventually engulf the country. As a result of this emerging revolution there is some stress in the old and new ideologies. One of the points of contention is the ‘giving of respect’. The idea of respect being earned and not a right because of the tag he wears creates friction in both parties.  I will refrain from taking sides.

It seems sensible to understand what ‘you’ want. After all it is ‘your’ life. It is not greed or selfishness; it is a simple emphasis on self. And there seems nothing wrong if you are not hurting others in achieving it.

PS – Sorry I abused the inverted quotes and used some awesome cliches!

Leap, in good faith

You stare into the abyss of the unknown. The darkness creates trepidation in the mind. It is not just the unknown your worried about, but the consequences of the impact of a hard landing. Everyone fears the unknown; there is nothing wrong with that. But to freeze into inaction, is not the path a warrior of destiny must adopt.

The longer you look more frightening it gets. You look for clues, for guidance but none is at hand. To forge forward is your way of life, but against a gaping black hole your way of life takes a back seat. The reality is quite different from your philosophy. Still that gnawing urge to continue pushes you to the edge. Your mind is numb, you at the end of your wits. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide, it is time to face reality. The equation is simple, turn around and walk back or move forward.

Here is what you do, you listen to the heart. Your heart will guide you through this turmoil. It is not biased by data; it is not corrupt with prejudice. The heart is pure. It is simply guiding your instincts. You hesitate, shut your eyes and leap. 

If the intent is good, the outcome will be good.

Keep the faith.

I - Alone.

Standing alone, I ponder.
Is it real or just my minds creation?

I wonder, amazed, at the gnawing questions.
At the thousand little doubts, at a million unknowns.

Should you just ignore them,
Or seek answers to the unending queries.
Or just let them lie in vacuum for eternity.


Somethings are best left untouched.
Happiness has an uncanny way of finding its way into your life.

A Modern Greek Tragedy

The world is fretting over the potential default by the Greek government on the debt it has issued. Various scenarios are being envisaged and implications being discussed by Central Banks, Governments, economists and analysts alike. A similar scenario was witnessed just last year. At the time, members of the European Union stepped in to ‘bailout’ (word of the year nominee) to the errant nation.

Greece piled up the debt to fund its infrastructure investment when they hosted the Olympics in 2004. Time has now come to repay these debts and the coffers are empty. The sustainability of the infrastructure has been questionable right from the beginning. Huge stadiums with no utilization plans post the event, swimming pools rotting, velodrome covered with dust and a hockey arena which hasn’t been used since (no one plays hockey in Greece apparently!!). This is just about stadiums and sporting facilities. Greece upgraded its airport (old one lies unused now), updated its metro systems, built a tram network and improved its road. The infrastructure created is a positive but the huge operating costs are unsustainable.

It is not just the Olympics that have single handedly caused the spiral of the nation. There are various other factors that have contributed to this situation. The major factors are government policy on pension, taxation systems, government employee salary structures and corruption amongst others.

It’s no longer the issue of interest or principal not being paid to lenders. Huge amounts of derivatives and insurance (hedging) products are issued based on this debt. So it is possible that entities insuring Greece does not default will face billions in claims which could potentially render them insolvent.

Bailing out Greece will not cost too much financially (in the region of $100bn, a drop in the ocean) but raises the further complications of how many such nations will wander the path of default knowing they will be bailed. When Lehmann went bust, the world discovered that they had hardly imagined the consequences.

If Greece goes bust, we may just revisit the experience of the last few years. A déjà vu of sorts with a hint of Greek Tragedy!!

Demographic Divide(n)d

1.2 billion people and growing, more than half under the age of 25. That’s present day India for you.

“Wow” scream economists and financial analysts, “that is such a huge opportunity”. It most definitely is a huge opportunity but a lot of things need to fall in place for it to become tangibly beneficial. The opportunity will translate into a reality when this huge chunk of people get an education, enter the workforce (either jobs or as entrepreneurs) and earn an income. After all, the market will get bigger only when more people have money. That’s the whole concept of Demographic Dividend.

Here’s my issue, there are too many if’s to be addressed and honestly some of them look insurmountable.
Getting over a 150 million into school, another 40 million to college and completing higher education. The challenge to fight illiteracy has never been so significant.Our system is not strong enough to support such volumes. Yes, there are some great organizations (Pratham, Teach India etc) doing some excellent work to encourage education and they have broken traditional models to achieve great success. But the fact remains vast areas of India are not as accessible.Education is half the battle, creating employable talent is a whole different ball game.

Lets talk about infrastructure, roads teeming with cars, trains overflowing with people, lack of housing, inefficient supply chain etc and the worst part is the total apathy towards the situation. It is a wonder how we have sustained our high GDP growth. The India story is definitely one which will be told as one achieved despite a million 'inspite off's'.


I would love to talk about politics and the impact politicians can have on demographic dividend. But I risk sounding more cynical than this post has already become. So I am just going to say "No comments" on that topic. The less I say, the more it will be heard I guess.

We as a nation surprise and that is probably our greatest asset. Overcoming obstacles and shocking the ordinary, that's India. Just hope the Dividend pays off..

World Champions

Truly exhilarating.

Happy for Sachin!!